Over-under

Okay, I just got in from a run-walk of the Ridge Road Loop. I did not look at my watch. My goal was to run evenly throughout, with an overall pace of about 12 minutes a mile. Again, I hoped to feel at the end as if I could've continued at that pace for 10 miles, and remained comfortable throughout. I believe I succeeded in the comfort category. I'm unsure of my pace.

Back in the late 1970s and early 1980s, a lot of all-comers track meets started with a what was called a prediction mile. Entrants would write how fast they expected to run a mile, remove their watches, and then run as close to their prediction as possible. Most people used it as a warmup. My jog-all-day pace then was eight minutes a mile, so I always turned in 8:00. I was good at it. I once won at the North Little Rock High track with an 8:00. In the summer of 1981, at a track in Daytona Beach, I remember finishing second with an 8:01. Some kid who looked like Dennis the Menace ran exactly his prediction of 5:30. I don't think I ever missed by more than five or six seconds.

I'm not nearly as good at the prediction game as I was then. But let's see. I turned in a 48-minute prediction for the Ridge Road Loop today. And the time is (no kidding, I'm looking now for the first time). ...Shit. I suck. I ran it in 44:40. My mile splits were 11:14, 11:44, 11:05, and 10:37.

Of course, as old and slow as I am now, it's always nice to see I have run faster than I thought.

I don't think I can run 10 miles at 11:10 a mile. I would be delighted this weekend or Monday to break two hours.

Tomorrow I plan to run the 47th Street Loop in 36 minutes. That's the over-under. If I miss by more than a minute, there's a good chance I will lie about it here. Vegas experts would recommend you take the under, I'm sure.